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李彥宏:AI已改變搜索行業(yè),未來(lái)十年人們對手機的依賴(lài)將逐步降低

來(lái)源:鈦媒體

摘要: 近日,百度創(chuàng )始人、董事長(cháng)兼CEO李彥宏作為受邀嘉賓出席了印度理工學(xué)院(IIT)馬德拉斯分院舉辦的Shaastra 2020科技節“Spotlight Lecture Series”活動(dòng),發(fā)表了題為“人工智能時(shí)代的創(chuàng )新”的演講。

鈦媒體注:近日,百度創(chuàng )始人、董事長(cháng)兼CEO李彥宏作為受邀嘉賓出席了印度理工學(xué)院(IIT)馬德拉斯分院舉辦的Shaastra 2020科技節“Spotlight Lecture Series”活動(dòng),發(fā)表了題為“人工智能時(shí)代的創(chuàng )新”的演講。在他看來(lái),隨著(zhù)AI的發(fā)展,未來(lái)會(huì )有越來(lái)越多的搜索可以直接得到答案。展望未來(lái)十年,我們對手機的依賴(lài)程度會(huì )逐步降低。

演講中,李彥宏表示,移動(dòng)時(shí)代改變了互聯(lián)網(wǎng),應用程序正在變成一座座孤島!昂芏啻笮虯PP已經(jīng)成為相互孤立的狀態(tài),它們的內容和服務(wù)無(wú)法通過(guò)搜索引擎或第三方程序方便獲取!

“進(jìn)入AI時(shí)代,搜索也在不斷發(fā)展變化”,他認為,“搜索技術(shù)的發(fā)展日新月異。以前,搜索技術(shù)在我看來(lái)基本上就是一種統計技術(shù)。但在今天,所有的一切都是機器學(xué)習!

對此,他進(jìn)一步解釋道,在20、25年前,當搜索引擎剛剛開(kāi)始流行起來(lái)的時(shí)候,背后的技術(shù)與人工智能毫無(wú)關(guān)系,F在之所以說(shuō)搜索本質(zhì)上是一個(gè)人工智能的問(wèn)題,原因就在于,當人們用文字、問(wèn)題提出請求或者表達興趣的時(shí)候,計算機會(huì )推測人類(lèi)或用戶(hù)的意圖,從而提供相關(guān)答案。而這就是人工智能的本質(zhì),即讓計算機了解人類(lèi)、服務(wù)人類(lèi)。

作為百度的本行,搜索也將被人工智能改變。李彥宏稱(chēng),越來(lái)越多的搜索將直接得到答案,而不是像過(guò)去,給用戶(hù)大量鏈接讓他們自己去尋找正確答案。目前的首條滿(mǎn)足率是60%,之后將上升至70%、80%甚至90%。人們將更容易直接得到正確答案,而不再需要點(diǎn)擊不同的鏈接、瀏覽不同的網(wǎng)頁(yè)。

談到他眼中的未來(lái)十年,李彥宏表示,未來(lái)十年屬于人工智能,智能經(jīng)濟也將成為世界經(jīng)濟的新標簽!叭绻f(shuō)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)改變了我們的消費方式、娛樂(lè )方式,那么智能經(jīng)濟將改變我們的生產(chǎn)方式,將大大提高人類(lèi)的生產(chǎn)力!

對于智能經(jīng)濟改變生產(chǎn)方式,他認為可以分成三個(gè)方面來(lái)理解:首先是全新的人機交互模式,其次是人工智能將變革各行各業(yè),最后是人工智能基礎設施。

其中,在新的人機交互模式方面,李彥宏判斷,未來(lái)十年,人們對于手機的需求度和依賴(lài)度會(huì )大大降低!耙驗闊o(wú)論走到哪里,我們周?chē)加袀鞲衅,有基礎設施,它們可以回答我們的問(wèn)題,為我們服務(wù),所以我們不必每次都掏出手機。這就是人工智能的力量!

以下為李彥宏演講全文:

Good afternoon everyone. It’s so great to see you all come to my talk today on a Saturday afternoon. I heard people who can not get into IIT go to MIT. I know why today because you are so eager to learn new things.

各位下午好,很高興大家在這個(gè)周六的下午來(lái)參加我的講座。我聽(tīng)說(shuō)沒(méi)有進(jìn)入印度理工學(xué)院的人才最后去了麻省理工學(xué)院,今天我明白了,這是因為在座的各位對探索新知是那么的渴求。

Today I’m going to talk about innovation in the age of AI because everyone knows that AI is the major wave these days.

大家都知道,人工智能是當今世界的一大潮流。今天,我將和大家探討人工智能時(shí)代的創(chuàng )新。

Before I talk about AI, I would like to go over with you what’s happened to the internet after smart phones. Or, how has mobile changed the internet? Of course, this is pretty much a China perspective because I guess most of you are more familiar with the US landscape, but China is slightly different because we have a relatively independent ecosystem in mobile.

在談 AI 之前,我想和大家回顧一下智能手機誕生之后互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的演變,或者說(shuō)移動(dòng)時(shí)代是如何改變互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的。當然,在座的各位可能對美國的情況比較熟悉,我將主要從中國的角度進(jìn)行回顧。中國的情況與美國有些不同,因為我們擁有相對獨立的移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)生態(tài)系統。

The first change is apps becoming isolated islands. What that means is that there are quite a number of large apps that are wrapped around isolated (islands) - the contents, the services are not so easily accessible by search engines or third-party programs. We see that as a trend that more and more apps are doing things independently instead of relying on a search engine.

首先,應用程序正在變成一座座孤島。也就是說(shuō),很多大型 APP 已經(jīng)成為相互孤立的狀態(tài),它們的內容和服務(wù)無(wú)法通過(guò)搜索引擎或第三方程序方便獲取。我們認為這是一種趨勢。越來(lái)越多的應用程序開(kāi)始獨立運行,不再依賴(lài)搜索引擎。

And the second is that content is linked to an author. What that means is in the PC era, we pretty much interacted with web sites or web pages. We know there’s a webmaster behind the website but we probably never think about directly communicating with the webmaster. But in the age of mobile, content is closely linked to authors, especially on social media.

其次,內容開(kāi)始直接與作者相連。在個(gè)人電腦時(shí)代,我們的互動(dòng)對象主要是網(wǎng)站或網(wǎng)頁(yè),我們知道網(wǎng)頁(yè)的背后是網(wǎng)絡(luò )管理員、站長(cháng),但我們可能從沒(méi)想過(guò)直接和網(wǎng)絡(luò )管理員進(jìn)行交流。但是,在移動(dòng)時(shí)代(尤其在社交網(wǎng)絡(luò )上),所有內容經(jīng)常會(huì )直接與作者緊密相連。

And even today, especially in China, news feeds, orcontent feeds, are very popular. When you search for things, not only (will) you find the relevant content, it’s easy for you to find the author behind the content. So today, when you find the relevant content you can ask questions and most likely that author will directly respond to your questions. This is increasingly the case for mobile internet.

現如今,尤其是在中國,新聞推送或內容推送都非常流行。用戶(hù)進(jìn)行搜索時(shí),不僅能查找到相關(guān)內容,還能方便地找到該內容的作者。在查找到相關(guān)內容后,用戶(hù)可以提問(wèn)題,而作者很可能直接回應用戶(hù)的問(wèn)題。在移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)代,這種情況越來(lái)越普遍。

And the third one is video. Video is becoming the main form of content. We used to see text, then more and more images became available on the internet, and today video has become the most important form of content on the internet. People’s mindsets are also changing toward video content.

第三是視頻的興起。視頻正在成為主要的內容形式。在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上,我們最初看到的是文字,后來(lái)看到越來(lái)越多的圖片。當前,視頻已經(jīng)成為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上最重要的內容形式。人們對視頻內容的心態(tài)也在發(fā)生變化。

Today, if you search for, let’s say, the general relativity theory, you probably would imagine that a Wikipedia entry would come up as the first result. In the case of Baidu, a Baidu encyclopedia entry would come up as the first result. But if you think about it, a video clip, video content, could be a better answer for this query because we can probably find a very good talker, very good teacher, to talk about the relativity theory in a good way, very easy-to-understand way.

比如說(shuō),如果你搜索廣義相對論,你看到的第一條搜索結果可能是維基百科條目。如果以百度為例,那百度百科將會(huì )是第一條搜索結果。但請設想一下,一個(gè)視頻片段或視頻形式的內容,可能會(huì )是這項查詢(xún)結果更好的答案。因為我們能找到一個(gè)很好的敘述者、很好的老師去用非常簡(jiǎn)單易懂的形式闡述什么是相對論。

You feel you’re connected to the teacher, to the person who created that content, instead of just hard text. This kind of theory is relatively hard to understand. And video provides a lower barrier to entry for this kind of knowledge and content.

在這種形式下,你能感覺(jué)到自己和這位老師、這位講述者是相連的,而不只是面對一些單一的文字。像相對論這樣的理論是比較難以理解的,而視頻則降低了此類(lèi)知識與內容的獲得門(mén)檻。

So this is what we see during the mobile internet age.

這是我們在移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)代看到的情景。

And in the age of AI, search is evolving too. So, how is AI changing search?

進(jìn)入 AI 時(shí)代,搜索也在不斷發(fā)展變化。那么,人工智能究竟如何改變搜索呢?

We’re also seeing a number of trends. The first is that the first result is typically the right answer. Right now about 60% of queries are answered by the first result.

我們目前看到很多新的趨勢。首先,第一條搜索結果通常是正確答案,目前搜索首條結果回答了大約60%的查詢(xún)。

So, we are increasingly giving direct answers instead of a very large number of links for the users to find the right answer. And I believe this kind of scenario will become more and more popular, or, an increasing number of queries will be answered directly by the first result or by a paragraph of content.

有越來(lái)越多的搜索將直接得到答案,而不是像過(guò)去,給用戶(hù)大量鏈接讓他們自己去尋找正確答案。我相信這種情況會(huì )越來(lái)越普遍,也就是說(shuō)用首條搜索結果或一段內容就能直接解決搜索問(wèn)題的情況將更多。

So right now it's like 60%, it will go to 70%, 80%, or even 90%. So increasingly your query will be answered directly instead of going through a list of websites or links. Because, if you think about the search problem, it's essentially an AI problem.

目前的首條滿(mǎn)足率是60%,之后將上升至70%、80%甚至90%。人們將更容易直接得到正確答案,而不再需要點(diǎn)擊不同的鏈接、瀏覽不同的網(wǎng)頁(yè)。因為搜索問(wèn)題本質(zhì)上是一個(gè)人工智能的問(wèn)題。

Although, 20, 25 years ago, when search engines became popular, the technology behind it had nothing to do with AI. But search is essentially an AI problem because you basically, humans, express their request, their interest, in the form of queries or text, then we use computers to guess what that human or what user means, then come up with the relevant answer. And if you think about AI, that's pretty much the definition of AI, letting computers understand humans and serve humans.

在20、25年前,當搜索引擎剛剛開(kāi)始流行起來(lái)的時(shí)候,背后的技術(shù)與人工智能毫無(wú)關(guān)系,F在之所以說(shuō)搜索本質(zhì)上是一個(gè)人工智能的問(wèn)題,原因就在于,當人們用文字、問(wèn)題提出請求或者表達興趣的時(shí)候,計算機會(huì )推測人類(lèi)或用戶(hù)的意圖,從而提供相關(guān)答案。而這就是人工智能的本質(zhì),即讓計算機了解人類(lèi)、服務(wù)人類(lèi)。

So solving the search problem is pretty much like solving the general AI problem. It is a hard problem, but we are getting closer and closer.

所以說(shuō),解決搜索問(wèn)題實(shí)際上更像是解決一個(gè)普遍的人工智能問(wèn)題。這是一個(gè)很大的挑戰,但我們離目標越來(lái)越近了。

Then second, content feed blends with search results. What that means - given that in a lot of cases, in most cases, the first result is the right answer, or we can directly answer your question without having you go through a large number of links, so the rest of the links becomes redundant.

其次,內容推送與搜索結果之間的界限日趨模糊。也就是說(shuō),在大多數情況下,一個(gè)搜索結果就可以解決你的搜索問(wèn)題,你不再需要翻看其他鏈接的時(shí)候,這些鏈接也就成了多余信息。

We actually don't need to give you a lot of redundant content. So once your query is answered, what we would like to give you is knowledge related to that topic, but not directly on that topic.

實(shí)際上,我們也不需要提供多余信息。一旦你提出的問(wèn)題已經(jīng)有了答案,我們會(huì )更愿意提供與你搜索的話(huà)題相關(guān)的其他知識,而不需要與你的問(wèn)題直接相關(guān)。

For example, if you search for Van Gogh, and the first result is about the general introduction of Van Gogh, then the second one can be a general introduction about Monet. It doesn’t have to have the word Van Gogh in it. Once your question is answered, we can expand the content based on your interest, not necessarily related to your query, based on our understanding of your interests, of you as a user.

比如說(shuō)你搜索梵高,首條結果是對他的概述,那么第二條可能就是對莫奈的簡(jiǎn)要介紹。這個(gè)結果并不一定需要包含梵高兩個(gè)字。所以,一旦你提出的問(wèn)題得到解答,我們就會(huì )基于你的興趣擴展你搜索得到的內容。不需要與你的問(wèn)題直接相關(guān),而是根據我們對你的興趣的理解來(lái)提供內容。

In the age of mobile, we actually know a lot more about our users than the PC era, so we can actually extend the user's interests a lot. We can give them more and let users spend more time.

在移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)代,我們對用戶(hù)的了解遠比在個(gè)人電腦時(shí)代豐富的多。正因如此,我們才能真正做到擴大對用戶(hù)興趣的了解。我們給的內容越多,用戶(hù)花費的時(shí)間也就越多。

In China, on average every user spends about five hours on the mobile phone (per day) and that's still increasing. People spend more and more time, and for search, we can directly answer users' queries in one shot, so we are giving more and more relevant content to our users.

在中國,人均每天使用手機的時(shí)間大約是五個(gè)小時(shí),這個(gè)數字還在不斷增加。那么就搜索而言,如果我們可以直接滿(mǎn)足搜索要求,人們花費的時(shí)間越多,就意味著(zhù)我們正為客戶(hù)提供越來(lái)越多的與之相關(guān)的內容。

Then the third, I think many of you already have this kind of experience, the camera and microphone become the new keyboard. You don't have to express your interest in text only, you can express your interest in speech, in images, or in video. If you are interested in a certain plant and wonder what the name is, you can just use your camera and point to that flower and it will tell you. This has increasingly become accurate because of AI.

第三,我想在座的很多人已經(jīng)有了這樣的體驗,相機和麥克風(fēng)已經(jīng)成了新的鍵盤(pán)。未來(lái)搜索將不僅限于文字,用戶(hù)還可以用語(yǔ)音、圖像或者視頻來(lái)表達意圖。比如你對某個(gè)植物感到好奇,不知道它叫什么,那么對它拍個(gè)照就會(huì )有答案。人工智能使這樣的搜索結果變得越來(lái)越精確。

So if we have to look back for the past 10 years, as we just entered 2020, I think if we need to put a label on the economy, I would call it the internet economy, because internet changed our lives, changed a lot of things over the past 10 years.

我們已經(jīng)步入2020年,回望過(guò)去十年,如果要給這一時(shí)期的世界經(jīng)濟添加一個(gè)標簽的話(huà),我認為這個(gè)標簽應該是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟,因為這十年間,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)改變了我們的生活,改變了很多東西。

It changed payment, food delivery, retail, ride-hailing. And more importantly, I think entertainment.

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)改變了支付、外賣(mài)、零售和約車(chē)方式。我認為更重要的是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)改變了娛樂(lè )方式。

Internet changed entertainment. Ten years ago most of us spent a lot of time watching TV. Today, I was at a forum a couple of weeks ago, it's about this size, about 400 people. And I asked, who of you watched TV last night, and none of them raised their hand.

在上一個(gè)十年,我們大多數人會(huì )花很多時(shí)間看電視。兩周前,我出席了一個(gè)論壇,規模跟今天差不多,約有400人在場(chǎng)。當我問(wèn)道“有沒(méi)有人昨晚看電視了”,沒(méi)有一個(gè)人舉手。

Today they spend, you know, five hours playing games or watching short videos just using their mobile phone. They don't watch TV anymore. So the internet fundamentally changed the way people entertain themselves. But, going forward, I think we are entering a new age, the age of AI. So, the characteristics of the economy will also change.

今天,人們會(huì )用手機玩幾個(gè)小時(shí)的游戲或者看幾個(gè)小時(shí)的短視頻,但根本不會(huì )去看電視。也就是說(shuō),互聯(lián)網(wǎng)從根本上改變了人們的娛樂(lè )方式。但是,展望未來(lái),我認為我們正在進(jìn)入一個(gè)新的時(shí)代——人工智能時(shí)代,而世界經(jīng)濟的特征也將隨之發(fā)生變化。

So in the coming decade, I would label it as “intelligent economy”. What does that mean, is that if we can see that internet changed the way we consume, or internet changed the way we entertain ourselves, the intelligent economy will change the way we produce. It will significantly improve productivity for humans.

未來(lái)十年,智能經(jīng)濟將成為世界經(jīng)濟的新標簽。如果說(shuō)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)改變了我們的消費方式、娛樂(lè )方式,那么智能經(jīng)濟將改變我們的生產(chǎn)方式,將大大提高人類(lèi)的生產(chǎn)力。

There are also three layers I'd like to go through. The first one is the new mode of human-machine interaction, the second one is how AI transforms industry after industry, and the last one I'd like to talk about is the infrastructure for AI.

這一點(diǎn)也可以分成三個(gè)方面來(lái)講解。首先是全新的人機交互模式,其次是人工智能將變革各行各業(yè),最后是人工智能基礎設施。

The new human-computer interaction. I think many of you already have this kind of experience. Today, new cars sold on the market are all connected cars, meaning that they are connected to the internet. When you get into a car, you have a screen (that is) bigger and better than your mobile phone screen. You have more expensive microphones, you have cameras, all kinds of sensors in the car, so essentially when you get into the car, you don't need to use your mobile phone anymore.

我想在座很多人已經(jīng)體驗過(guò)人機交互的新模式。當前市場(chǎng)上銷(xiāo)售的新車(chē)都是互聯(lián)汽車(chē),都是連接互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的車(chē)。進(jìn)入車(chē)內,你會(huì )看到一個(gè)比手機更大、更好的屏幕。車(chē)內配備了更昂貴的麥克風(fēng)、攝像頭、以及各種類(lèi)型的傳感器。因此從本質(zhì)上講,當你進(jìn)入車(chē)內之后,就不再需要使用手機了。

So you can see that it's pretty much all voice controlled. It connects with all kinds of car services, content, and it responds on a continuous basis. You don't have to use wake words every time.And this is an experience that's already on the market today.

正如在視頻中見(jiàn)到的,這幾乎都是語(yǔ)音控制的。車(chē)內各種服務(wù)、內容都具備語(yǔ)音控制功能,并且可以連續響應。在這種情況下,我們不必每次都要使用喚醒詞,現在上市的汽車(chē)已經(jīng)具備這一功能。

And at home, you will also have an experience that is very different from today's mobile internet.

我們在家也能得到與當今移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)截然不同的體驗。

So when you have a smart display at home like this, chances are that you will use your mobile phone less. If you want to know the weather tomorrow, you ask this kind of smart display and it will answer you directly. But if you want to get the weather report from your mobile phone, you typically need to pull out your mobile phone from your pocket, unlock it, find the right app, and type in the destination. It requires a lot of steps.

所以,當家里有這樣一臺智能屏時(shí),我們就有可能不再那么依賴(lài)手機了。假如想知道明天的天氣,我們只要對智能屏問(wèn)一句,它就可以立刻回答。但是如果要通過(guò)手機知道,我們通常需要從兜里掏出它,解鎖,打開(kāi) APP,輸入相應的關(guān)鍵詞……需要很多很多步驟。

But for a voice-first device like this, it's much more direct and more convenient. The barrier to entry is also lower. You don't even need to be literate. You use talk and it will get you the answer.

但是對于這樣的語(yǔ)音設備,它更直接、更方便,使用門(mén)檻也更低。我們甚至不需要識字,只需要說(shuō)出問(wèn)題,它就能給出答案。

So because of this, for the past 10 years, we humans are increasingly dependent on mobile phones. I would say over the next 10 years we will be less dependent on the mobile phone, less and less, because wherever you go, there are surrounding sensors, there are infrastructure, that can answer your question, that can serve you. So you don't have to pull out your mobile phone every time. This is the power of AI.

正因為如此,在過(guò)去十年里,我們越來(lái)越依賴(lài)手機,而對于未來(lái)十年,我有一個(gè)判斷:我們對手機依賴(lài)程度會(huì )逐步地降低。因為無(wú)論走到哪里,我們周?chē)加袀鞲衅,有基礎設施,它們可以回答我們的問(wèn)題,為我們服務(wù),所以我們不必每次都掏出手機。這就是人工智能的力量。

In production, we also have this kind of new human-machine interaction. We call it "digital person". It's essentially a virtual assistant in the form of human, and doing things that complete your task, like this:

在生產(chǎn)中,也存在這種新型的人機交互模式——我們稱(chēng)之為“數字人”。它本質(zhì)上是一個(gè)人型虛擬助手,能夠幫助我們完成任務(wù)。例如:

Why is this useful? In this case, we’re using it for bank services. A lot of banks can not afford to open all kinds of different branches in many cities. It's very expensive to rent that kind of real estate and hire lots of people. But we can establish this kind of virtual assistant, if you want to open a bank account or if you want to borrow money, or any kind of bank services that require human assistance, you can do that through this kind of virtual assistant.

為什么這是有用的?在這個(gè)案例中,我們將其應用到銀行服務(wù)中。很多銀行都無(wú)力在各大城市開(kāi)設分行,因為租金以及雇用大量人員的成本太高。但是,如果用戶(hù)想要開(kāi)設一個(gè)銀行帳戶(hù),或者想要借錢(qián),或者任何需要人工協(xié)助的銀行服務(wù),我們都可以通過(guò)這種虛擬助手來(lái)實(shí)現。

And we found that people, users, feel more comfortable to deal with a virtual person than a real person. So not only does it save money, save space, it also becomes more user-friendly. You don't have any pressure. You can say whatever you want and do whatever you want.

而且我們發(fā)現,與真實(shí)的人相比,用戶(hù)與虛擬人打交道時(shí)感覺(jué)更舒服。這樣不僅節省資金,節省空間,而且也更加人性化。在虛擬人面前,我們沒(méi)有任何壓力:可以沒(méi)有顧慮地交談,做任何想做的事。

So all of these are changing the way we interact with computers or machines. And AI is also transforming a lot of industries, in the sense of higher efficiency and lower risk. Let me go through a couple of them.

所有這些都在改變著(zhù)我們的人機交互模式。人工智能還在為許多行業(yè)帶來(lái)變革,提高效率降低風(fēng)險,讓我們來(lái)看幾個(gè)例子。

Customer service. You’ve seen the virtual assistant case for banking, but in many other industries, customer service can be transformed by AI. We've been working with a number of telecomoperators to assist their customer service using virtual assistants. You know in China, I think in India too, a typical telecom operator has like 100 different plans. When a customer calls in, the customer service people can typically recommend a plan that is suitable for that person.

客戶(hù)服務(wù)。我們已經(jīng)了解了銀行業(yè)的虛擬助手案例,在許多其他行業(yè)中,人工智能還可以改進(jìn)客戶(hù)服務(wù)。我們一直與許多電信運營(yíng)商合作,協(xié)助他們使用虛擬助手進(jìn)行客戶(hù)服務(wù)。不僅在中國,我想在印度也是如此,一般情況下,一位電信運營(yíng)商會(huì )有100種不同的套餐計劃。當客戶(hù)來(lái)電時(shí),客服人員通?梢酝扑]適合該客戶(hù)的方案。

But how do you figure out what's the best plan for that user in one or two minutes? It's very challenging for a real person. But for a virtual assistant, it's actually very easy and quick, and we can use this kind of virtual assistant to do a much more efficient customer service. That's for the telecom industry, and for many other industries we can also find similar cases.

但是,如何能在一兩分鐘之內找出最適合該客戶(hù)的方案呢?對真人客服來(lái)說(shuō),做到這一點(diǎn)是非常具有挑戰性的。但是對于虛擬助手來(lái)說(shuō),情況就不同了。它實(shí)際上非常簡(jiǎn)單快捷,能夠提供更高效的客戶(hù)服務(wù)。不僅僅是電信行業(yè),對于許多其他行業(yè),我們同樣可以找到類(lèi)似的案例。

For education, it’s a similar thing. We can come up with a personal tutor, personal assistant, to help students to learn new things. When the student has any kind of questions or problems, we use this kind of virtual assistant to help walk through all kinds of knowledge points and help the students learn.

教育也是一樣。我們可以找一位私人導師,或私人助教來(lái)幫助學(xué)生學(xué)習新知識。當學(xué)生有任何問(wèn)題或疑問(wèn)時(shí),我們都可以通過(guò)虛擬助手來(lái)幫助學(xué)生梳理各種知識點(diǎn),促進(jìn)學(xué)生學(xué)習。

Also, for the pharmaceutical industry, AI will accelerate the pace of drug discovery. We see a lot ofstartups doing this. Using AI, you can come up with all kinds of different combinations of molecules as drug targets. So you can very quickly generate a lot of potential drug targets and let the biologists, the scientists, to sift through and validate those drug targets.

同樣對于制藥行業(yè),人工智能將加快藥物研發(fā)的步伐。我們看到,已經(jīng)有很多初創(chuàng )公司都在這樣做了。通過(guò)人工智能,我們可以提出各種不同的分子組合作為藥物靶標,然后非常迅速地生成很多潛在的藥物靶標,并讓生物學(xué)家和科學(xué)家篩選和驗證這些藥物靶標。

AI is transforming transportation. This is a very big deal in China because in China we have built a lot of transport-related infrastructure: highways, metros, overpasses. It costs a lot of money. But the software layer of the transportation has not been improved much. In the age of AI, we think that's going to change dramatically. This is a video showing you that.

此外,人工智能也在改變著(zhù)交通方式。這在中國是一件大事,因為在中國,我們已經(jīng)建造了許多交通基礎設施,如高速公路、地鐵、立交橋等,這花費巨大。但是,交通運輸的軟件層面沒(méi)有太大的改進(jìn)。在人工智能時(shí)代,我們認為這將發(fā)生巨大變化。

This is the so-called V2X, vehicle to everything, especially V2I, or vehicle to infrastructure. The roadside units will communicate with cars to improve the efficiency of transportation, avoid blind points on the road, assist self-driving, manage parking.

這就是所謂的 V2X,vehicle to everything,尤其是 V2I,vehicle to infrastructure,車(chē)路協(xié)同。路側設備將與車(chē)輛進(jìn)行通訊,以提高交通效率、避免道路盲點(diǎn)、協(xié)助自動(dòng)駕駛、管理泊車(chē)等等。

Apollo is an open source platform for automated driving. But it's not just for driving, I think it's for the whole transportation system. It's going to take many more years for fully autonomous cars to be available everywhere. But before that we can already use AI to significantly improve transportation.

Apollo 是一個(gè)自動(dòng)駕駛開(kāi)源平臺。但我認為,它不僅僅可用于駕駛,還可以用于整個(gè)交通系統。就目前的情況看來(lái),要讓全自動(dòng)駕駛汽車(chē)在世界各地普及,還需要很長(cháng)時(shí)間。但在那之前,我們可以用人工智能來(lái)顯著(zhù)改善當下的交通狀況。

Today, every year, more than a million people get killed in car accidents. We think using AI we can significantly reduce the fatality rate for that. Using AI, if you take over the traffic lights you can in real time get a sense of how many cars are there, which direction are they driving, and at what speed, and you can intelligently remind cars that are at risk using the roadside sensors. You can also in real time adjust the traffic light time so that the whole city works in a harmonious way, that the delay will be significantly reduced.

每一年,都有超過(guò)一百萬(wàn)的人在交通事故中喪生。我們認為,人工智能可以大大降低由交通事故引發(fā)的死亡。比如在交通信號燈處使用人工智能,可以實(shí)時(shí)了解路口有多少車(chē)輛,以及它們的行駛方向和速度,并且可以通過(guò)路邊傳感器實(shí)現對危險車(chē)輛的智能提醒。此外,人工智能還可以實(shí)時(shí)調整交通信號燈的時(shí)間,使整個(gè)城市的交通更加和諧,從而大大減少交通延誤。

In a Chinese city called Baoding we took over almost all the traffic lights in that city and we were able to reduce the wait time by 20% to 30% during peak hours, so reduce traffic delays by 20% to 30%.

在中國保定,我們的人工智能系統幾乎運用到這座城市的所有交通信號燈。在高峰時(shí)段我們可以將路口等待時(shí)間縮短20%到30%,從而減少了20%到30%的交通延誤。

Now let's talk about the infrastructure. We know that infrastructure is very important. Highways and high speed rail significantly propelled the growth of China's economy over the past few decades, but going forward, I think the infrastructure for AI will significantly propel the speed of innovation. That includes the app development platform,deep learning framework, general AI technology,and chips designed specifically for AI.

現在,我們來(lái)談?wù)劵A設施。我們都知道,基礎設施非常重要。在過(guò)去的幾十年中,高速公路和高鐵極大地推動(dòng)了中國經(jīng)濟的增長(cháng),但展望未來(lái),我認為人工智能基礎設施將極大地推動(dòng)中國經(jīng)濟的創(chuàng )新發(fā)展。其中包括應用開(kāi)發(fā)平臺、深度學(xué)習框架、通用人工智能技術(shù)和專(zhuān)為人工智能設計的芯片。

At Baidu, we have more than 2,000 engineers working on our AI platform. The goal is to let all the other developers, we have millions of developers, to develop all kinds of applications in a more convenient way, a faster way, and a lower cost way.

百度有超過(guò)2000名工程師正在致力于發(fā)展我們的人工智能平臺。而我們的全球開(kāi)發(fā)者社區有高達數百萬(wàn)名開(kāi)發(fā)人員,我們的目標是讓所有開(kāi)發(fā)人員都能以更方便、更快捷的方式和更低的成本來(lái)開(kāi)發(fā)各種應用程序。

For conversational AI, we have DuerOS that's used for smart speakers, smart display, or any kind of IOT devices. For Baidu Cloud, it’s optimized for all kinds of AI applications. Apollo, I’ve talked about it, it's an open source platform for autonomous driving. We now have more than 175 eco partners, including all of the major OEMs, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota, Ford. And for Baidu Brain we provide all kinds of basic AI capabilities such as voice recognition, computer vision, natural language processing, and all kinds of recommendation platforms that we use for mobile content. And PaddlePaddle is the deep learningframework originated from China, like Tens or Flow or PyTorch.

在對話(huà)式人工智能系統方面,我們擁有用于智能音箱、智能屏或任何物聯(lián)網(wǎng)設備的 DuerOS。我們的百度智能云也針對各種人工智能應用進(jìn)行了優(yōu)化。就像我剛剛提到過(guò)的,Apollo 是一個(gè)自動(dòng)駕駛開(kāi)源平臺,F在,我們已經(jīng)擁有超過(guò)175個(gè)合作伙伴,其中包括各大汽車(chē)主機廠(chǎng)商(OEM),比如梅賽德斯、寶馬、豐田、福特等。通過(guò)百度大腦,我們提供多種基礎人工智能能力,例如語(yǔ)音識別、計算機視覺(jué)、自然語(yǔ)言處理以及用于移動(dòng)端內容的各種推薦平臺。飛槳(PaddlePaddle)是源于中國的深度學(xué)習框架,類(lèi)似于 TensorFlow 或 PyTorch。

So AI is a big wave, but not every company, not everyone has the power to develop a full-fledged cutting edge AI technology. That's why AI platform is very important and that's why we've devoted a lot of resources to this kind of open source, open platform so that everyone can take advantage of that.

可以說(shuō),人工智能是新興的浪潮,但不是每個(gè)公司、每個(gè)人都有能力開(kāi)發(fā)出成熟的人工智能尖端技術(shù)。這就是為什么人工智能平臺非常重要、為什么我們在這種開(kāi)源開(kāi)放平臺上投入大量資源的原因:讓每個(gè)人都可以方便地從中獲益。

We also use AI for public welfare.

我們還將人工智能用于公益事業(yè)。

We use AI to help find missing people. In China, we've already found more than 9,000 missing people using AI technology, pretty much facial recognition technology. Even if after aperson is missing for more than 20-years, we had a case, a boy, he was lost at age four and at age 25 he was identified as that missing person.

我們用人工智能幫助尋找走失人口。在中國,我們使用人工智能技術(shù)——主要是人臉識別技術(shù),已經(jīng)找到了超過(guò)9000名走失人口,其中有的人已經(jīng)走失長(cháng)達二十多年。我們有一個(gè)案例,一個(gè)男孩走失時(shí)才4歲,而我們的系統在他25歲時(shí)仍然成功地找到了他。

And we use AI to help the visually impaired people. We've installed the Baidu Xiaodu smart speaker in a lot of the blind massage parlors. Those massage therapists who are visually impaired can use voice to control air conditioning, control the curtains, control a lot of IoT devices, which makes their life much easier.

我們還用人工智能來(lái)幫助視障人士。我們已經(jīng)在很多盲人按摩院安裝了百度小度智能音箱。那些患有視力障礙的按摩師可以使用語(yǔ)音來(lái)控制空調、窗簾等其他物聯(lián)網(wǎng)設備,從而使他們的生活更加方便。

So AI can be used in a lot of these public welfare cases.

因此,人工智能在此類(lèi)公益應用方面前景廣闊。

I also have a claim, AI will make you immortal. What does that mean? It means that machines can become smarter and smarter, can learn from humans. And today, storage has become cheaper and cheaper, and we can afford to store a lot of personal information.

我曾經(jīng)說(shuō)過(guò),人工智能能讓人永生。這句話(huà)什么意思呢?它的意思就是,機器可以變得越來(lái)越智能,逐漸可以模擬人類(lèi)。如今,數據存儲設備變得越來(lái)越便宜,這讓我們可以負擔存儲大量個(gè)人信息的成本。

For example, I make a speech here and it is video-taped, it can be stored for a long time. And your voice can be stored, your video can be stored, your text, your articles, everything about yourself can be digitized.

例如,我在這里講話(huà),通過(guò)錄制視頻可以把我說(shuō)過(guò)的話(huà)長(cháng)期存儲起來(lái)。我們的聲音可以被存儲,視頻可以被存儲,文字、文章以及關(guān)于我們自己的一切都可以用數字化的方式保存起來(lái)。

And later on, based on this kind of digital information or content, computers can learn how you think. So after a while, it's not hard to imagine when Tim Cook wants to evaluate whether Apple should work on an autonomous driving project, he can actually ask Steve Jobs, the digital copy of Steve Jobs, if that’s a good idea. Because there is a lot of information about Steve Jobs stored on the internet, and computers can learn the way Jobs thinks. So this makes Jobs immortal. But it's not just Jobs, anyone, anyone’s information can be stored, can be learned, and made available when necessary. So in a sense, AI will make you immortal.

以后,根據這些數字信息或內容,計算機可以模擬人類(lèi)的思維方式。因此,不難想象,再過(guò)一段時(shí)間,如果蒂姆·庫克(Tim Cook)想評估蘋(píng)果是否應該開(kāi)展自動(dòng)駕駛項目,他就可以詢(xún)問(wèn)史蒂夫·喬布斯(Steve Jobs),或者說(shuō)經(jīng)過(guò)數字化的史蒂夫·喬布斯。因為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上存儲了大量有關(guān)史蒂夫·喬布斯的信息,所以計算機可以模擬出喬布斯的思考方式。通過(guò)這種方式,可以讓喬布斯永遠地活下去。不僅是喬布斯,任何人的信息都可以被存儲,被計算機學(xué)習和模擬,并且在需要時(shí)進(jìn)行信息輸出。因此從某種意義上說(shuō),人工智能可以讓人永生。

That's how fascinating innovation is, that’s how fascinating AI is. India is one of the fastest-growing smart phone markets in the world, and India is also a very large developing country right next to China. We’ve seen fast growth for both countries over the past few decades. And I think for next decade, there will be more opportunities for us. So we at Baidu are very much looking forward to working with Indian institutions to make a better world through innovation. Thank you all.

這就是創(chuàng )新的魅力所在,這就是人工智能的魅力所在。印度是全球增長(cháng)最快的智能手機市場(chǎng)之一,也是位居中國之后的第二大發(fā)展中國家。在過(guò)去的幾十年中,我們兩國的經(jīng)濟都在快速增長(cháng)。我認為在下一個(gè)十年中,我們將擁有更多的機會(huì )。因此百度非常期待能與印度的機構合作,通過(guò)創(chuàng )新來(lái)創(chuàng )造更美好的世界。謝謝各位。


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